Farmgate milk price: Encouraging signs in rate forecast

Freshagenda analyst Steve Spencer, as part of his milk price outlook for June released last week, has forecast a season price of $6.10-$6.50 a kilogram of milk solids for next season- starting July 1. This forecast is made up of a commodity milk value of $5.80/kgMS with a 50c/kgMS “value capture” component. The latter refers to what can be achieved by milk companies. A stark contrast to his predictions earlier this season and a rise from the $5.35-$5.60/kgMS forecast back in April.

The outlook is based on a $US0.78 Australian dollar, a slightly weaker value than what was used for the April forecast. It also assumes fundamental commodity values will improve due to supply constraints before Northern Hemisphere production recovers in the middle of next year.

Last week the Global Dairy Trade auction was down 1.3 per cent to $US3487 a tonne. Whole milk powder was down 1.1 per cent to $US3205, with cheddar down 3.6 per cent to $US3998/tonne.

New Zealand bank ASB predicted, in its Rural Economic Note, that price softness could reflect the “firm NZ production over April. Production for April was 3.7 per cent more than the same month last year.”

“However, we suspect the global butter shortage remains acute,” it said. “The boost from firm April production is likely to be short-lived. Indeed, we still expect butter and/or anhydrous milk fat prices will set fresh record highs over the coming months.”


Source: The Weekly Times


Tags: , ,
Any claim arising from the information contained on the eDairy News website shall be submitted to the competence of the ordinary courts of the First Judicial District of the Province of Cordoba (Primera Circunscripción Judicial de la Provincia de Cordoba), Republic of Argentina, in the city of Córdoba, excluding any other jurisdiction (Federal jurisdiction is also excluded).


Criteria in the moderation of comments that eDairy News will take into consideration in all its publications.

  • They will not be considered insults of any kind against anyone,, whether a user, moderator or publisher. Complaints made with the name and surname of the author of the commentary will only be accepted after confirmation by the moderator.
  • Unsubstantiated and gratuitous destructive criticism or expressions of bad taste, whether offensive, racist or xenophobic.
  • SPAM, (Insert links to web pages not related to the subject, provide emails, etc...)
  • Comments that are meaningless with the footnote or the dairy sector.

Related posts