There was a downturn in GB daily milk deliveries in the week ending 14 May, suggesting we have passed the peak.
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According to the latest data, the highest daily figure was 37.00m litres on 6 May, while the 7-day rolling average peaked on 8 May at 36.81m litres.

graph of GB daily milk deliveries

The spring flush has so far run behind last season, following the trend seen since the latter half of 2021. This year’s peak is 2.5% lower than the highest individual day in 2021, and the lowest ‘peak day’ since 2016. The peak is also 0.4% lower than our March forecast.

While the height of the peak is one factor, how sustained it is also affects availability of milk. In 2021 we saw a rapid fall from the peak which reduced summer volumes. Meanwhile in 2020 we had a lower but more drawn out peak influenced by the reaction to coronavirus lockdowns. With low milk production a particular concern this season, this will be an area to watch over the coming months.

At the midpoint of the year, the all-milk price forecast for 2022 is a whopping $26.20 per hundredweight (cwt), according to the June 2022 USDA/ERS Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

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